Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,246$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(507 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,202.0}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,202.0\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $103$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(17.8 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.5}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(103.5\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $48$ on 2020-06-03
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $30,893$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(9.04 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,214.4}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 31.1)}}\) (asimptote \(30,214.4\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,921$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(404 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,892.3}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 37.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,892.3\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $372$ on 2020-06-03
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $233,836$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(4.79 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{227,649.6}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(227,649.6\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $33,601$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(5.99 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,551.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 44.3)}}\) (asimptote \(32,551.5\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $39,297$ on 2020-06-03
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,851,520$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.97 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,832,236.5}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 50.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,832,236.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $107,175$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105,413.9}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 46.7)}}\) (asimptote \(105,413.9\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,265,087$ on 2020-06-03
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $281,270$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(2.88 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{280,685.3}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 51.7)}}\) (asimptote \(280,685.3\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $39,811$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(5.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,873.7}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 42.7)}}\) (asimptote \(37,873.7\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $240,247$ on 2020-06-03
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $40,803$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(3.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,401.6}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 62.3)}}\) (asimptote \(41,401.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,542$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(498 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,448.0}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,448.0\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $36,261$ on 2020-06-03
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $184,121$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(4.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{175,811.8}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 35.1)}}\) (asimptote \(175,811.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,602$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,355.0}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 35.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,355.0\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,066$ on 2020-06-03